What to Expect from ConocoPhillips’ Stock in Light of Upcoming Earnings Reports

Updated On: May 7, 2025 9:59 pm

ConocoPhillips Set to Report Q1 Earnings: Insights and Projections

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is scheduled to release its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday, May 8, 2025. Analysts forecast earnings of $2.05 per share on $15.91 billion in revenue. This forecast indicates a 1% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings and a 15% increase in sales compared to last year’s values of $2.03 per share and $13.79 billion in revenue. Historically, COP Stock has underperformed following earnings announcements, declining 58% of the time with a median one-day drop of 1.6% and a maximum observed drop of 6%.

Strategic Positioning and Financial Outlook

ConocoPhillips has successfully repositioned itself as a low-cost oil producer. The company achieved this by divesting high-cost assets and reinvesting in lower-cost resources. A significant move in this strategy was the $22.5 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil, which added over two billion barrels of oil and gas reserves. This acquisition bolstered ConocoPhillips’ resource base, now exceeding 20 billion barrels, with an average supply cost of $32 per barrel.

Amid ongoing global economic uncertainty and trade tensions between the U.S. and key partners, ConocoPhillips exhibits financial strength. The company anticipates generating adequate cash flow to support its $12.9 billion capital investment plan aimed at sustaining and growing production in the current year. With a market capitalization of $111 billion, ConocoPhillips reported $55 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, alongside $13 billion in operating profit and $9.2 billion in net income.

Insights for Event-Driven Traders

For event-driven traders, understanding historical patterns can provide an edge. Positioning ahead of earnings announcements or reacting to post-release movements may be beneficial. If lower volatility is desired, opting for the Trefis High Quality portfolio might be an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns beyond 91% since its inception.

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ConocoPhillips’ Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

Over the last five years, there have been 19 recorded earnings data points, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns. This means positive 1D returns occurred about 42% of the time.
When considering data from the last three years, this percentage improves to 45%.
The median of the 8 positive returns is 1.8%, while the median for the 11 negative returns stands at -1.6%.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

Understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can help traders develop strategies. For instance, if 1D and 5D returns show strong correlation, positioning long for the next 5 days may be advantageous following a positive 1D post-earnings return. Below is correlation data based on five-year and three-year histories.