Wheat Futures Decline After Initial Gains Amid Export Updates

Chicago and Kansas City Markets See Pricing Dips

Wheat futures are experiencing losses this Monday after an early boost. Chicago SRW futures have dropped by 4 to 5 cents, while KC HRW futures fell 6 to 7 cents for the front months. Meanwhile, MPLS spring wheat is down by 2 to 3 cents in early trading.

Wheat Export Inspections Report Shows Strong Numbers

The latest Export Inspections report from FGIS revealed wheat shipments totaled 536,217 MT (19.7 mbu) for the week ending February 6. This figure is more than double that of the previous week and represents a 31.58% increase compared to the same week last year. The Philippines received 186,641 MT, the Dominican Republic got 67,329 MT, and Mexico was shipped 64,668 MT. Since June 1, total marketing year shipments have reached 14.566 MMT (533.2 mbu), marking a 24.37% rise from last year.

Anticipation Grows for USDA’s WASDE Update

Analysts await updates from the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report scheduled for Tuesday. They predict a slight increase in U.S. wheat carryout, with an expected rise to an average of 799 mbu. World stocks are also projected to decrease by 0.22 MMT to 258.60 MMT.

Traders Adjust Positions in Wheat Futures

As of February 4, large managed money traders significantly reduced their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options, cutting back by 20,340 contracts to a net position of -90,442 contracts. In Kansas City wheat, they trimmed 6,405 contracts, leading to a net short of 35,981 contracts.

Russia Adjusts Wheat Export Projections

Russian agricultural analysts from IKAR have revised their wheat export forecast for the 2024/25 season to 43 MMT, down by 0.5 MMT from earlier estimates. They have also adjusted their production forecast for 2025 downward by 2 MMT to a total of 82 MMT.

Current Wheat Futures Prices

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat is priced at $5.78, down 4 3/4 cents.

May 25 CBOT Wheat is at $5.90 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents.

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat is at $5.97 1/4, down 7 cents.

May 25 KCBT Wheat is at $6.07, down 6 3/4 cents.

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat is at $6.25, down 2 3/4 cents.

May 25 MGEX Wheat is priced at $6.35 3/4, down 2 cents.

Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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