The wheat complex is trading with contracts in the green to start the new week. They saw stronger trade on Friday, with assistance from some bull friendly USDA numbers. Chicago contracts were up 18 ¼ to 26 cents across most active contracts. Kansas City futures were up 12 ¾ to 21 ½ cents across the board to round out the week. MPLS spring wheat futures tallied 12 ¼ to 16 ¼ cents on the session.
Commitment of Traders data from the CFTC showed spec traders in Chicago wheat trimming 5,506 contracts from their net short position to 42,360 contracts by May 7th. In Kansas City futures, they peeled back 5,597 contracts to a net short position of 24,013 contracts as of Tuesday, the smallest net short going back to October of last year
USDA added 10 mbu back on to the old crop export projection in the Friday morning WASDE, which cut the 23/24 carryout number to 688 mbu. Still, 24/25 stocks are seen as building, with the carryout projected at 766 mbu, 16 mbu below the average trade guess. All wheat production was pegged at 1.858 bbu, with winter wheat coming in 46 mbu below the trade at 1.278 bbu. That was due to SRW down 68 mbu vs. the estimate at 343.6 mbu. HRW was above estimates at 705.4 mbu, with white winter at 218.7 mbu.
World stocks for the 23/24 balance sheet were tallied at 257.8 MMT by the USDA, a 0.5 MMT reduction. New crop was projected to drop yr/yr by 4.2 MMT to 253.61 MMT. SovEcon has trimmed their 24/25 Russian wheat production estimate by 3.4 MMT to 89.6 MMTdue to frost damage on top of earlier heat and dryness. USDA’s initial estimate was 88 MMT in the monthly report.
Jul 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.63 1/2, up 26 cents, currently up 3 cents
Sep 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.82 1/2, up 24 3/4 cents, currently up 3 1/4 cents
Jul 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.73 1/4, up 21 1/2 cents, currently up 3 3/4 cents
Sep 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.85 1/2, up 20 3/4 cents, currently up 3 3/4 cents
Jul 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.20, up 16 1/4 cents, currently up 4 1/2 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
