Riding the Waves: Wheat’s Midweek Rollercoaster
As the trading week kicked off with a promising recovery bounce, hope lingered in the air like a whiff of freshly baked bread. However, like a fickle gust of wind, the midweek session saw this optimism slowly dissipate. Chicago futures, initially off the session lows by a mere dime, eventually closed the day with prices 5 ½ to 7 cents in the red. The story was similar for KC wheat futures that managed to firm off the lows but still settled 1 ¼ to 2 ¼ cents weaker. MGE wheat also saw a downturn, ending the day fractionally lower to 2 cents in the red.
Trade Expectations and Global Impact
Amidst this ebb and flow, traders are eagerly awaiting the USDA’s data on old crop wheat export sales. Expectations range from 200k MT of cancelations to 500k MT of net new sales for the week ending 3/14. New crop sales, on the other hand, are estimated to be under 140k MT.
Egypt’s GASC notably secured 110k MT of wheat via tender, with part of the supply coming from Bulgaria. Meanwhile, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture is in pursuit of 119,000 MT of food-quality wheat from the US, Canada, or Australia in a routine weekly tender, with outcomes anticipated either late today or on Thursday.
Not to be left behind, Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported that grain shipments totaled 32.4 MMT for the season-to-date, including 12.9 MMT of wheat. While this represents a 9.4% decrease from the previous year, wheat exports, on the other hand, continue to outpace last year’s figures by 5%.
Market Closures and Speculation
May 24 CBOT Wheat made its final call at $5.45, down 7 1/2 cents, while Jul 24 CBOT Wheat bid farewell at $5.60 1/4, marking a 7-cent decrease. Simultaneously, May 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.80 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents, with Jul 24 KCBT Wheat not far behind at $5.73 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents. May 24 MGEX Wheat lingered at $6.55, down 3/4 cent, underlining the general downtrend experienced in Wednesday’s trading.
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler had no direct or indirect positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All the information presented here serves solely informational purposes. For further details, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy.
The thoughts and opinions expressed herein belong to the author and may not necessarily align with those of Nasdaq, Inc.
