HomeMost Popular The Flourish of Wheat Amid Corn's Rally: A Market Analysis

The Flourish of Wheat Amid Corn’s Rally: A Market Analysis

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Wheat Futures Surge

Despite the unassuming NASS data, wheat futures experienced a significant surge in the run-up to the 3-day weekend. Spring wheat futures took a slight dip due to higher acreage, closing 3 ½ to 6 cents lower. However, Chicago prices, although 8 cents below their peak, still closed 8 ¾ to 12 ¾ cents higher for the day. July SRW wrapped up the week with a commendable net gain of 6 ¼ cents, despite experiencing a 3 ½ cent loss in March. HRW futures, while approximately 9 cents shy of their highs at closing, managed to mitigate the week’s loss to just 5 cents. The 5 ½ to 7 cent front month gains propelled July HRW to finish the month with a net 5 ½ cents increase.

Plantings Data Revealed

The annual prospective plantings data reflected winter wheat area totaling 34.135 million acres, slightly below the assumed 34.7 million. Total wheat area stood at 47.498 million acres, compared to last year’s 49.575 million and the expected 47.3 million. Other spring area saw an uptick of 135,000 acres, totaling 11.335 million acres. Notably, Texas winter wheat saw a decrease of 500,000 acres from last year, while Kansas witnessed a 400,000-acre drop.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

The quarterly wheat supply count as of March 1st was quantified at 1.087 bbu, comprising 272 mbu on-farm and 816 mbu off-farm. This figure surpassed market expectations, with the trade anticipating a count near 1.05 bbu as opposed to last year’s 941 million. Q3 use experienced a decline of 38 mbu from the previous year, with 333 million being utilized. Weekly wheat bookings for the week ending 3/21 were reported at 340k MT, exceeding the 4-week average but notably lower than the prior week.

Market Close Snapshot

May 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.60 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents,
Jul 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.75 3/4, up 13 cents,
May 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.85 1/4, up 7 cents,
Jul 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.79 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,
May 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.45, down 6 cents

On the publication date, Alan Brugler was not (either directly or indirectly) holding positions in any of the securities mentioned. All information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. For more details, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy.

The opinions and viewpoints presented in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily align with those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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