Wheat Futures Show Mixed Results Amid Forecasted Rain
Wheat futures exhibited mixed performance on Thursday across the three major exchanges. Hard red winter (HRW) contracts showed resilience, while Chicago soft red winter (SRW) futures fell by 3 to 4 cents in the nearby months, influenced by an anticipated wet forecast. Conversely, Kansas City HRW contracts recovered from initial declines, closing up 1 to 2 cents. Minneapolis (MPLS) spring wheat also saw positive movement, gaining 2 to 4 cents by the end of the trading session.
Weather and Forecast Impacts
Upcoming rain forecasts predict total accumulation of 1 to 3 inches across much of the SRW region. In contrast, HRW areas remain predominantly dry, except for some parts of eastern Southern Plains.
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USDA Export Sales Data Report
This morning, the USDA released Export Sales data, reporting a total of 100,325 metric tons (MT) for the 2024/25 sales period during the week of March 20. This figure still surpasses the previous week’s net reductions. Japan emerged as the primary buyer with 72,000 MT, while Nigeria purchased 53,400 MT. Additionally, net reductions totaled 125,500 MT for unknown destinations, primarily shifting to definite locations. Notably, new crop wheat sales fell short of the predicted range of 100,000 to 300,000 MT, landing at just 11,200 MT.
International Developments
Overnight, Taiwanese importers secured a total of 100,000 MT of US wheat. Meanwhile, the European Commission estimates the EU’s soft wheat production for the 2025/26 season at 126.5 million metric tons (MMT), significantly higher than last year’s 111.8 MMT. The forecast for ending stocks in 2025/26 stands at 7.3 MMT, which is lower than the anticipated 9.4 MMT for 2024/25.
Closing Prices
May 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32, down 3 1/4 cents.
Jul 25 CBOT Wheat finished at $5.47 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents.
May 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.66 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents.
Jul 25 KCBT Wheat settled at $5.79 3/4, up 1/2 cent.
May 25 MGEX Wheat ended at $5.88 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents.
Jul 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.03 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold any positions, either directly or indirectly, in the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data herein are intended for informational purposes only. For more details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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