Wheat Prices Rise Amid Tension in the Black Sea
On Tuesday, wheat prices are holding onto gains as tensions escalate in the Black Sea region, prompting short covering among traders. Chicago SRW futures have climbed by 5 to 6 cents, while KC HRW contracts have increased by 5 to 7 cents. MPLS spring wheat has also seen a rise of 4 to 6 cents.
Escalation in Ukraine Conflict
This surge follows President Biden’s recent approval for Ukraine to use U.S.-made long-range missiles against targets in Russia. In a swift response, Ukraine launched ATACMS missiles into Russian border areas overnight.
Update on U.S. Winter Wheat Crops
The latest Crop Progress report from NASS shows that as of November 17, the U.S. winter wheat crop is 94% planted, which is slightly behind the average by 2 percentage points. Emergence rates have reached 84%. Additionally, the condition of the crop has improved, with 49% now rated as good or excellent, an increase of 5% from the previous week. The Brugler500 index rose by 12 points, now standing at 338. The coming week is expected to bring drier conditions to much of the Southern Plains, although SRW areas may see minimal rain.
Forecast for Ukraine’s Wheat Production
Ukraine’s agricultural ministry anticipates an increase in the 2025 wheat crop, projecting an expansion of 0.4 million hectares (around 1 million acres) over last year, with expected production reaching 25 million metric tons (MMT). This marks a 3 MMT increase compared to their current projection for 2024. Meanwhile, EU soft wheat exports have reached 8.79 MMT since July 1, reflecting a decrease of 3.87 MMT from the same timeframe last year.
Current Wheat Futures Prices
Dec 24 CBOT Wheat is trading at $5.52 3/4, showing an increase of 5 1/2 cents.
Mar 25 CBOT Wheat is currently priced at $5.70 3/4, up 5 cents.
Dec 24 KCBT Wheat is at $5.62 1/4, gaining 7 cents.
Mar 25 KCBT Wheat is valued at $5.73 3/4, a rise of 6 3/4 cents.
Dec 24 MGEX Wheat stands at $5.90 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents.
Mar 25 MGEX Wheat is at $6.08 3/4, increasing by 4 1/2 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
