The Resilience of Wheat Prices Amidst Market Volatility

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Witnessing the Monday rebound, wheat prices once more surged by 4 to 10 cents on Tuesday. By day’s end, Chicago futures stood at a 1.4% to 1.8% gain, with Dec SRW closing at +$6. Meanwhile, Kansas City wheat saw a 1.3% to 1.6% rise, with spikes of up to 9 cents. Dec HRW triumphantly crossed the $6 threshold, and spring wheat prices soared 4 ½ to 5 cents in the front months.

The Egyptian General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) recently initiated an international tender, with results anticipated either tomorrow or later this week.

In the latest weekly report, wheat export shipments hit 302k MT for the week ending 3/14. This figure decreased from the previous week’s 467k MT and fell short by 73k MT compared to last year’s same week shipments. Breakdown per class saw 83k MT of HRW and 74k MT of HRS. The USDA also made adjustments, adding 63k MT to prior reports, bringing the season’s total shipment to 13.74 MMT. Despite this, the pace lags behind last year by 15.6%.

On Monday, various states released their crop ratings, revealing positive growth across HRW regions. Kansas ratings improved by 2% to reach 55% good/excellent, a 3-point increase at 347 on the Brugler500 index. Texas, too, saw a significant uptick with ratings climbing by 16 points to 329 on the Brugler500, translating to a 2% uptick in the good/excellent category at 48%. Although Oklahoma marked a minor dip of 6 points to 360, this amounted to a 4% reduction in the good/excellent category, settling at 61%.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture reported a total of 32.4 MMT in grain shipments, including 12.9 MMT of wheat for the ongoing season. This sum stands 9.4% below last year’s figures, yet wheat exports remain 5% higher than the previous season’s pace.

 

May 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.52 1/2, up 9 3/4 cents,

Jul 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.67 1/4, up 9 3/4 cents,

May 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.82 3/4, up 9 cents,

Jul 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.75 1/2, up 8 cents,

May 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.55 3/4, up 5 cents,

As of the publication date, Alan Brugler held no direct or indirect positions in any securities mentioned. All information and data provided is for informational purposes only. For more details, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy.

All opinions expressed in this article solely belong to the author and do not necessarily represent those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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