Wheat Futures Face Declines as Export Inspections Show Strong Week
Market Update: Wheat futures saw declines on Monday across all three major exchanges. Chicago SRW futures dropped by 3 to 4 cents, while KC HRW futures fell by 6 to 8 cents in the front months. MPLS spring wheat experienced a smaller loss, ranging from 1 to 3 cents down. Looking ahead, the forecast indicates lighter precipitation totals in the Plains but presents heavier rainfall in the eastern regions of the country.
Export Report Highlights: The latest Export Inspections report from FGIS revealed that 536,217 MT (19.7 mbu) of wheat were shipped during the week ending February 6. This figure more than doubled from the previous week and represents a 31.58% increase compared to the same week last year. Notably, 186,641 MT was sent to the Philippines, while the Dominican Republic received 67,329 MT and Mexico was allocated 64,668 MT. Cumulatively, marketing year shipments have reached 14.566 MMT (533.2 mbu) since June 1, which is 24.37% higher than the same timeframe in the previous year.
Texas Crop Progress: Texas also released its Crop Progress report, showing that 36% of the crop is classified in good to excellent condition, down from 37% the prior week. The Brugler500 index rating decreased to 309, a loss of 2 points.
Upcoming USDA Updates: USDA’s WASDE report is set for release on Tuesday, with analysts anticipating a slight uptick in the U.S. carryout, expected to rise by 1 to 799 mbu on average. Additionally, traders are forecasting a reduction in world stocks by 0.22 MMT, bringing the total to 258.60 MMT.
Russian Export Predictions: According to Russia’s IKAR, the country’s wheat export estimate for 2024/25 stands at 43 MMT, a decrease of 0.5 MMT from the previous estimate. Their production forecast for 2025 saw a decline as well, dropping by 2 MMT to 82 MMT.
Mar 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.79 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents.
May 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.92 1/2, down 3 cents.
Mar 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.96 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents.
May 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.07, down 6 3/4 cents.
Mar 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.25 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents.
May 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.36 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data provided are for informational purposes only. For more details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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