Wheat Markets Experience Losses Ahead of Export Sales and Tariff Changes

The wheat complex is witnessing another round of declines across all three markets on Tuesday. Chicago SRW futures have fallen by 11 to 13 1/4 cents. Kansas City HRW futures are dropping 9 to 15 cents in the front months. Notably, there were 247 deliveries reported against March KC wheat and 33 against March CBT wheat overnight. Additionally, MPLS spring wheat is down by 6 to 9 cents.

This morning, USDA announced a private export sale of 130,000 metric tons of white wheat to South Korea, scheduled for shipment in the 2024/25 cycle.

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In recent trade developments, President Trump has enacted 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Mexican officials have given a Sunday deadline to respond, indicating they may implement both tariff and non-tariff actions. Canada has also announced 25% tariffs on $30 billion (Canadian) of US goods. In retaliation to a new 10% tariff on Chinese imports, China has imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. wheat, which is significant given that China has not booked any wheat from the U.S. yet this year, receiving only 139,119 metric tons in total.

State-level Crop Progress reports indicate that Kansas winter wheat is currently rated at 54% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index of 344, an increase from 50% and 339 at the beginning of February. In contrast, Texas saw a decrease of 3% and 9 points on the Brugler500, with ratings falling to 34% good/excellent and an index of 295.

For the European Union, wheat exports have totaled 13.93 million metric tons (MMT) from July to March 2, a decrease from 22.04 MMT during the same period last year. Furthermore, Japan has announced a tender to purchase 94,282 metric tons of wheat from the U.S., Canada, and Australia, with 35,882 metric tons explicitly designated from the U.S.

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat is priced at $5.18 3/4, down 13 1/4 cents.

May 25 CBOT Wheat is at $5.36 1/2, down 11 1/4 cents.

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat is trading at $5.38 1/4, down 9 1/4 cents.

May 25 KCBT Wheat is set at $5.47 3/4, a decrease of 14 1/4 cents.

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat is at $5.76, down 6 1/4 cents.

May 25 MGEX Wheat stands at $5.82 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. For further details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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