Wheat Futures Decline Amid Trade Tensions and Export Developments

The wheat complex experienced losses across the board on Tuesday. Chicago SRW futures fell by 11 to 13.5 cents. Meanwhile, KC HRW futures decreased by 13 to 14 cents for the front month contracts. The MPLS spring wheat market saw a decline of 11 to 18 cents, with the largest losses occurring in the March delivery.

This morning, the USDA reported a private export sale of 130,000 metric tons (MT) of white wheat to South Korea, intended for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.

Trade Tariffs Impacting Market Conditions

In ongoing trade developments, President Trump has implemented a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada. Mexico has set a Sunday deadline for its response to these tariffs, with President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador indicating that both tariff and non-tariff measures will be considered. In a related move, Canada has imposed similar tariffs on $30 billion (CAD) worth of U.S. goods. Commerce Secretary Lutnick later suggested that announcements regarding a potential rollback of these tariffs could come on Wednesday.

In retaliation to a new 10% tariff on Chinese imports, China has imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. wheat. Currently, China records zero MT of U.S. wheat purchases on the books, having imported just 139,119 MT so far this year.

EU and Japan’s Wheat Markets

On the international front, EU wheat exports have reached a total of 13.93 million metric tons (MMT) from July to March 2. This marks a significant decline from 22.04 MMT during the same timeframe last year. Additionally, Japan has issued a tender for 94,282 MT of wheat from the U.S., Canada, and Australia, specifically requesting 35,882 MT from the United States.

Closing Prices for Wheat Futures

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.18 1/2, down 13.5 cents.

May 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.36 3/4, down 11 cents.

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.34, down 13.5 cents.

May 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.48 1/2, down 13.5 cents.

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.64 1/2, down 17.75 cents.

May 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.80, down 11.25 cents.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy.

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