Wheat Prices Decline Amid Increased Supply and Market Adjustments

Wheat closed lower across all three exchanges on Tuesday, as an increase in expected wheat supplies looms for the final month of the marketing year. Chicago SRW futures fell by 4 to 6 cents. Kansas City HRW futures recorded losses of 6 to 7 cents in the front months. Minneapolis spring wheat prices dropped by 7 to 8 cents in the nearby contracts.

In related news, reports indicate that Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio conveying this offer to the Russian negotiating team.

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The monthly WASDE report from the USDA revealed a 25 million bushel increase in the U.S. ending stocks projection, bringing it to a total of 819 million bushels. This change resulted from a 10 million bushel increase in imports, paired with a 15 million bushel decrease in exports. Additionally, the cash average price was revised downward by a nickel.

On the global front, Turkey’s wheat production saw a historical revision, rising by 2.2 million metric tons, while Australian output was elevated by 2.1 million metric tons, now totaling 34.1 million metric tons. Ukraine’s stocks increased by 0.4 million metric tons following adjustments to last year’s output, alongside some reductions in Russian exports. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks declined by 1.5 million metric tons due to lower import numbers. Overall, these shifts contributed to a global stocks figure that rose by 2.52 million metric tons, reaching 260.08 million metric tons.

Coceral has estimated EU wheat production, including the UK, for 2025 at 137.2 million metric tons, a decrease from the previous projection of 140.4 million metric tons back in December.

March 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.41, down 4 1/4 cents.

May 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.56 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents.

March 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.58 3/4, down 7 cents.

May 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.72, down 6 1/2 cents.

March 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.82 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents.

May 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.97 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold any positions—directly or indirectly—in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data provided herein are for informational purposes only. For further details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

 

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