Wheat Futures Gain Amid Rising Tensions in Black Sea

The wheat market maintained its Monday gains at the close, with contracts enjoying positive trading. Chicago SRW futures rose by 5 to 7 cents. Kansas City HRW contracts increased by 6 to 7 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat futures were up by 1 to 3 cents. Heightened tensions in the Black Sea may have prompted some traders to cover short positions.

USDA Crop Progress Report Highlights

The USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report indicated that 83% of winter wheat has headed, surpassing the normal pace by 4 points. Harvest remains on average pace at 3% completed. Condition ratings increased by 2% to 52%, with the Brugler500 index rising by 4 to 336. The spring wheat crop is 95% planted, ahead of the average pace of 90%. Emergence stands at 73%, 4 percentage points above the 5-year average. Ratings improved by 5%, moving out of the poor/very poor categories, leaving 50% rated as good/excellent, while the Brugler500 rose by 14 to 340.

Weekly Export Inspections Data

Wheat shipments totaled 552,910 MT (20.32 mbu) for the week ending May 29. This figure declined by 1.79% from the previous week but showed a 29.4% increase from the same week last year. South Korea was the largest destination at 111,025 MT, followed by 90,792 MT to the Philippines and 81,130 MT to Indonesia. Year-to-date shipments are now 21.825 MMT (802 mbu), up 16.59% from last year, aligning with USDA’s full-year projection of 820 million bushels, including products.

Australia’s Wheat Crop Forecast

Australia’s wheat crop for 2025/26 is projected at 30.6 MMT according to ABARES, representing a potential decrease of 10% from the previous year if realized.

Closing Values

Jul 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.39, a rise of 5 cents.

Sep 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.53 1/4, an increase of 5 cents.

Jul 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.39 3/4, up by 6 1/2 cents.

Sep 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.53 1/2, also up by 6 1/2 cents.

Jul 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.27 1/4, an increase of 1 3/4 cents.

Sep 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.40 1/4, rising by 3 cents.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold any positions in the securities mentioned. All information is for informational purposes. For more details, see the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.