Wheat Futures Climb as Trade Tensions Loom
Chicago, KC, and MPLS Markets See Gains Amid Tariff Concerns
Wheat futures saw an upward trend in all three markets on Thursday. Chicago SRW futures increased by 3 to 4 cents by the close. KC HRW futures were up 7 to 8 cents for the front months, while MPLS spring wheat rose by 5 to 7 cents during the day. Precipitation is expected to remain limited in much of the Plains for the coming week.
Later Thursday, President Trump announced plans to implement a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada starting Saturday. Neither country has officially responded with retaliatory measures. Notably, in 2024, exports of wheat to Mexico accounted for 16.56% of total sales.
This morning, the USDA released export sales data, revealing that 456,086 metric tons (MT) were sold during the week of January 23. This figure surpasses last week’s sales and is 41.41% larger than during the same week last year. This figure is at the higher end of the anticipated range of 150,000 to 500,000 MT for 2024/25 wheat sales. The Philippines was the top buyer, purchasing 86,200 MT, while an unnamed buyer procured 85,300 MT. There were also 24,204 MT scheduled for 2025/26 sales, which falls within the 0 to 50,000 MT estimates, split between Peru and El Salvador.
Japan made a significant purchase of 89,134 MT of wheat from the US and Canada, including 29,070 MT specifically from the US, as reported in their weekly tender. Meanwhile, SovEcon estimates that Russia’s 2024/25 wheat export total will reach 42.8 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 0.9 MMT from earlier estimates.
Mar 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.66 1/2, up 4 cents.
May 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.79, up 3 cents.
Mar 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.88 1/4, up 8 cents.
May 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.98 1/4, up 8 cents.
Mar 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.20 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents.
May 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.28, up 5 3/4 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data included in this article serve solely for informational purposes. For further details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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