Guidance Confirmation and 2024 Outlook
P3 Health Partners Inc PIII has seen its shares surge by approximately 10% following the company’s reaffirmation of its guidance for 2023 and the release of its 2024 outlook.
2024 Outlook: The company anticipates revenue of $1.45 billion to $1.55 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.41 billion, and projects an Adjusted EBITDA of $20 million to $40 million.
Additionally, P3 Health Partners Inc. foresees its Medicare Advantage Members to be in the range of 125,000-135,000, along with a Medical Margin of $230 million-$250 million and Medical Margin PMPM of $165-$175.
2023 Guidance: The company has reiterated its guidance for revenue of $1.2 billion-$1.25 billion, compared to the consensus figure of $1.22 billion, and expects Medicare Advantage Members within the range of 115,000-120,000.
PIII continues to expect Medical Margin of $155 million-$175 million, Medical Margin PMPM of $120-$130, and an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $(50) million to $(30) million.
Dr. Sherif Abdou, co-founder and CEO, expressed confidence in the company’s performance, stating, “We made significant strides in 2023 and expect to achieve meaningful profitability in 2024, an important milestone for the company. We have a robust pipeline of strategic partnerships that will drive growth and further validate the P3 business model. And our business continues to gain momentum across all key performance metrics including managing medical cost trend.”
Positive Analyst Outlook
William Blair analyst Ryan Daniels views the organic growth outlook at P3 Health Partners as one of the strongest in their healthcare services coverage universe, with management continuing to target 35% growth per annum over the next five years.
Furthermore, Daniels anticipates the company’s positive macro tailwinds, myriad growth drivers, and scalable, capital-light business model to propelling top and bottom-line expansion going forward.
Daniels estimates sales and Adjusted EBITDA of $1.23 billion and $(43.8) million in FY23, and $354.8 million and $27.4 million in FY24, respectively. The analyst has reiterated the Outperform rating.
Current Market Performance
Price Action: PII shares are up 11.1% at $1.50 premarket on the last check Wednesday.
