Crypto enthusiasts have donned their rose-tinted glasses as traditional investments falter this quarter, casting a hopeful gaze towards Bitcoin (BTC-USD) ahead of its eagerly awaited halving scheduled for April 19.
Decoding the Bitcoin Halving and Price Speculations
So, what exactly is this halving, and more significantly, is Bitcoin’s surge inevitable post the April 2024 event?
In layman’s terms, the halving refers to the halving of block subsidies for Bitcoin miners, reducing the rewards from 6.25 BTC to 2.125 BTC. This event, although mystifying to many, is a periodic occurrence in the world of Bitcoin, historically triggering price upticks rather than downturns. The halving is a quadrennial affair for Bitcoin, typically resulting in price hikes due to the decrease in the hashrate, driving some miners away from the activity, diminishing supply, and consequently inflating prices.
It’s worth noting that the surge in Bitcoin’s value post-halving might not manifest immediately. In reality, it could take as long as 18 months for the halo effect of the halving to truly manifest itself.
According to Rikke Staer, CEO of Coinify, “Price reaction is typically not immediate. Major post-halving growth occurs between six and 18 months, with significant price fluctuations becoming less probable as the market expands.”
The previous halving event saw Bitcoin’s price skyrocket fivefold, aligning with past trends. Will history repeat itself this time around?
Expert Forecasts: Bitcoin’s Trajectory Post the Halving
While experts differ slightly in their predictions, a consensus emerges – BTC prices are poised for an upward trajectory.
Creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, Plan B, anticipates a continuation of the historical surge in Bitcoin’s value post-halving. “All bitcoin price increase will again be around the halving,” said the pseudonymous analyst. The forecast suggests Bitcoin could surpass $100K in 2024 and top $300K in 2025.
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, mirrors the optimism with expectations of BTC surging by over 200% in the next year, potentially hitting $200,000 per coin. However, he foresees a possible short-term pullback of up to 15% before Bitcoin regains momentum post-halving.
JPMorgan, a lone contrarian, envisions a bearish future for Bitcoin following the halving. Analysts predict a drop to as low as $42,000 per coin after the event, attributing the decline to the waning excitement surrounding the halving. They also hint that the anticipated price surge post-event might already be factored into Bitcoin’s current price tag of $64,223 per coin.
On the publication date, Shrey Dua did not hold any positions related to the securities discussed in this article. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author.
With an educational foundation in economics and journalism, Shrey Dua leverages his diverse experience in media and reporting to deliver insightful articles covering a wide array of topics ranging from financial regulations and the electric vehicle industry to the housing market and monetary policies.
