American International Group, Inc. AIG is preparing to reveal its Q4 2023 financial results on Feb 13, after the closing bell.

Q4 Earnings Projections

The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.59—a 16.9% increase from the year-ago quarter. However, revenues are expected to decline by 4.6% to $11.6 billion.

AIG has outperformed estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 11.5%.

Previous-Quarter Performance

In the last quarter, AIG surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.9%, driven by strong underwriting results, reduced expenses, and higher net investment income.

Factors Impacting Q4 Earnings

The fourth quarter is anticipated to benefit from improved retention, new business, and continued growth in premium rates for the General Insurance business. However, there are concerns about increased expenses and reduced premium revenues.

AIG is expected to experience year-over-year growth in profits but faces challenges such as higher policyholder benefits and losses incurred, affecting profit growth levels and making an earnings beat uncertain.

Earnings Whispers

Analysts’ projections do not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AIG this time around.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -0.56%, suggesting lower than expected earnings based on the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.58 per share.

Considering these projections, potential investors may want to explore other options in the finance sector.

Stocks to Consider

While AIG’s earnings beat looks uncertain, there are other companies in the finance space, such as Primerica, Inc. and Trupanion, Inc., which show promise for an earnings beat in the upcoming quarter.