Betting markets lean towards a Donald Trump victory…

The RealClearPolitics Betting Average provides insights into how sportsbooks and prediction markets assess the upcoming election.

According to this data, bettors assign a 64% probability to Trump winning the presidency.

This assessment seems reasonable. Despite criticism, Trump’s popularity appears to have risen among voters, with recent polls showing him gaining traction nationally and in critical swing states.

Having invested professionally for over 40 years, I cannot overlook what historical stock market trends may suggest about the possibility of Kamala Harris pulling off a surprise victory.

As noted by Kiplinger:

In the 23 presidential elections since 1928, 14 were preceded by [stock market] gains in the three months prior. In 12 of those 14 instances, the incumbent (or the incumbent party) won the White House. In eight of nine elections preceded by three months of stock market losses, incumbents were sent packing.

This reflects an 87% accuracy rate.

The S&P 500, which serves as a benchmark for the U.S. stock market, has gained about 7% since July began. Other indices, including the Dow and Nasdaq, have also seen positive movements during this period.

Should history serve as a guide, it may be Kamala Harris, rather than Trump, who emerges as the next U.S. president.

Indicators suggest Harris has an edge in the race.

Since 1932, the incumbent party has continuously won reelection unless a recession hits during the current term; in this case, President Biden’s tenure.

Currently, despite public perceptions, the economy remains clear of recession. Recent data indicates a 2.8% annualized growth rate for the last quarter, underperforming expectations but far from recession territory.

While sharing insights with over 5,500 attendees during my free “The Day-After Summit”, I highlighted that my focus extends beyond Election Day.

The more concerning period may be the day after—next Wednesday, November 6.

Regardless of personal voting preferences, that day could ignite significant social conflict as both political sides dispute results.

This tension could catalyze substantial volatility on Wall Street, resulting in major fluctuations within the stock market.

This election could prompt one of the most fiercely contested post-election disputes in recent American history, surpassing even the Gore v. Bush in 2000 and Trump v. Biden in 2020.

The hope is for a definitive winner by November 6. However, it wouldn’t be surprising if clarity still eludes us by Inauguration Day, January 20, 2025.

Fortunately, strategies exist to mitigate potential losses while capitalizing on the chaotic aftermath of the election.

It’s essential to recognize that this isn’t my first significant election prediction.

Brace for the “Age of Chaos”

In December 2023, I warned about the “Californication” of America, predicting a Democratic candidate from California would drive ultra-liberal policies across the nation.

While I initially suggested this candidate would be Gavin Newsom, the outcomes remain relevant.

I indicated we were entering what I termed an “Age of Chaos”—a period of significant uncertainty for Americans.

This presentation has garnered over 3.2 million views, where I outlined steps for preparation.

However, what lies ahead next week may far exceed previous volatility as the Age of Chaos accelerates.

The focus is not merely on presidential votes.

On November 7, the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will convene to deliberate on crucial interest rate policies at the Federal Reserve’s headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Markets currently anticipate a quarter-point rate cut, following a half-point decrease in September. However, discussions could lead to a larger half-point cut or a decision to maintain rates as is.

This situation introduces additional factors influencing market instability following the election.

In stable times, the Fed’s decisions carry weight for market movements; however, in the wake of a contentious election, public anxiety may escalate.

As a result, investors could experience heightened stock market volatility as these dual pressures collide.

Reports indicate that investor nerves are already fraying.

A colleague recently mentioned that when contacting her broker about a routine IRA inquiry, he immediately inquired if she was looking to withdraw funds from the market. He revealed a surge of similar concerns from clients amid election turmoil.

Such worries about one’s financial future are only natural, as we’re human. We often align our choices with collective sentiments, particularly in uncertain times.

This instinct holds true today, just as it did for early humans.

Avoiding the Traps of Groupthink in Investing

Picture yourself in a primordial environment, moving towards a reliable water source with your tribe.

Along the way, you notice a crowd of terrified members from another tribe fleeing in panic. Instinctively, you feel the urge to run too, despite the absence of any identifiable threat.

This inherent reaction is part of what has allowed humans to thrive, but it can be detrimental to investment decisions.

Despite our capacity for creativity, the human brain is often ill-equipped for effective investing.

During my “Day After Summit” last night, I offered an alternative approach to navigating the impending post-election turbulence.

This method is based on data analytics, minimizing reliance on instinct or emotion.

My quantitative system has previously identified 3,500 stocks that gained over 1,000% after pinpointing volatility triggers.

The higher the volatility stemming from various shock events, the greater the potential for significant returns.

These events may arise from a disputed election result, disruption in the supply chain, new policies initiated by the incoming president, global conflict, or groundbreaking technological advancements.

When such volatility occurs, my system offers strategies to exploit the fluctuations for profitable trading opportunities.

Detailed explanations of this approach and its application in the current climate will be available…