Soybeans Rise as Production Estimates Drop
Soybean prices increased on Monday morning, gaining between 5 to 9 cents. Although futures initially fell after the USDA report was released on Friday, buyers managed to close out the day with contracts up between 1 ¼ to 6 cents. January futures ended the week with a significant gain of 36 ½ cents since last Friday. CmdtyView reported the national front month Cash Bean price increased by 4 ½ cents, settling at $9.75 1/2. Meanwhile, soymeal futures fell, losing $1.70 to $2.30 per ton, while soy oil futures offered some support, rising by 45 to 64 points across the board.
USDA Cuts Soybean Production Estimates
The USDA’s Crop Production report released on Friday revealed a major revision in the US soybean crop projection. The yield was reduced by 1.4 bushels per acre to 51.7 bushels, leading to a total production estimate of 4.461 billion bushels—a decrease of 121 million bushels from October. This sharp decline also impacted the US ending stocks, which were cut by 80 million bushels to 470 million bushels. Demand adjustments showed a 15 million bushel reduction in crush, now at 2.41 billion bushels, and a 25 million bushel decrease in exports, now at 1.825 billion bushels. However, production figures from South America remained unchanged, with world ending stocks reduced by 2.91 million metric tons to 131.74 million metric tons primarily due to the US projections.
Market Reactions and Brazil’s Planting Progress
According to the Commitment of Traders data, managed money speculators in soybean futures and options reduced their net short position by 2,114 contracts as of Tuesday, which brought their net short total to 70,112 contracts as of November 5. In Brazil, soybean planting has progressed well, with 67% completion as of last Thursday, which is 6 percentage points ahead of last year’s pace.
Current Soybean Prices
As of now, November 2024 soybeans closed at $10.16 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents, and are currently up 9 cents. Nearby Cash prices are at $9.75 1/2, reflecting a rise of 4 1/2 cents.
Additionally, January 2025 soybeans closed at $10.30 1/4, gaining 4 cents and currently showing a rise of 5 1/2 cents. May 2025 soybeans closed at $10.56 3/4, increasing by 6 cents and currently up 5 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold any positions in the mentioned securities. The information provided in this article is intended for informational purposes only. For further details, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author, and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of Nasdaq, Inc.
