Soybean Market Dips Amid Tariff Concerns and Mixed Export Data
The soybean market faced a decline of 7 to 9 cents in Friday morning trading. After posting losses of 10 to 17 cents the previous day, traders appeared to be taking profits ahead of the month’s end. According to CmdtyView, the national front month Cash Bean price increased by 17 1/2 cents, settling at $9.80 1/4. Meanwhile, soymeal futures dropped by $5.20 per ton, while Soy Oil futures remained steady or decreased slightly in the nearbys.
Presidential Tariff Decisions Fuel Uncertainty
Late Thursday, President Trump announced plans to implement a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada starting Saturday. No retaliatory responses from either country have been announced yet. While there was no mention of China in this context, the President indicated that they too would face tariffs and raised the possibility of imposing 100% tariffs on BRICS countries if they attempted to challenge the US dollar with their own currency.
USDA’s Upcoming Report and Current Stock Estimates
On Monday, the USDA is set to release its monthly Fats & Oils report, with analysts predicting the crushing of 217.6 million bushels of soybeans in December. Soy oil stocks are projected to stand at 1.734 billion pounds.
Export Sales Analysis Shows Mixed Results
The USDA’s recent Export Sales data revealed a total of 438,002 metric tons of soybeans booked for the 2024/25 season in the week ending January 23. This figure fell short of the 450,000 to 1.7 million metric ton estimate, representing a three-week low and a 70.6% drop from the previous week, though still exceeding last year’s comparable figure. Notably, China purchased 145,300 metric tons, while Spain acquired 66,300 metric tons. An additional 4,520 metric tons were reported for the 2025/26 season, all designated for Japan.
In terms of meal sales, 410,300 metric tons were sold that week, landing on the high end of estimates, and marking the second-largest sale of the marketing year. The Philippines purchased 140,500 metric tons, with 106,900 metric tons sold to undisclosed locations. Soy oil sales reached 12,452 metric tons, satisfying the middle of the estimated range of 4,000 to 20,000 metric tons. Shipments of soy oil reached a marketing year high of 103,600 metric tons.
Current Market Prices
As of March 25, Soybeans closed at $10.44, down 16 1/2 cents, and are currently down 9 cents. Nearby Cash prices were $9.80 1/4, reflecting a decline of 17 1/2 cents.
For May 25, Soybeans closed at $10.59 3/4, down 15 1/2 cents, and are now down 8 1/2 cents. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53 1/2, down 10 cents, with a current decrease of 7 3/4 cents. New Crop Cash prices are at $9.88, down 10 1/2 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. All information in this article is for informational purposes only. Please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy for additional details.
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