On October 6, 2023, world sugar prices surged, with October NY sugar #11 (SBV25) rising by 2.60% to $16.55 and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) increasing by 3.74% to $493.20. This uptick comes amidst concerns over global sugar supply tightening, influenced by Pakistan’s announcement to import 500,000 MT of sugar and the Philippines’ decision to import 424,000 MT.
Despite rising prices, sugar output expectations remain high, with the USDA projecting a global production increase of 4.7% year-over-year to 189.318 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season. India’s production is expected to rise by 19% to 35 million metric tons, and Thailand’s output forecast is up 14% to 10 million metric tons, which may counterbalance the short-term price rise.
Current sugar prices contrast sharply with recent lows; last week, October NY sugar hit a contract low, while July NY sugar reached a 4.25-year low. In comparison, global sugar output reached a surplus of 7.5 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in eight years, as projected by Czarnikow.
