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On Wednesday, November WTI crude oil closed down $0.43 (-0.73%) at a five-month low, while November RBOB gasoline rose by $0.0058 (+0.32%). Concerns of a global supply glut persist as the IEA forecasts a record oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd by 2026. Crude prices are under pressure due to renewed US-China trade tensions, which could dampen global economic growth and energy demand.
Additionally, data from Vortexa indicates that crude oil stored on stationary tankers jumped 8.9% week-over-week to 93.96 million bbl as of October 10. OPEC+ announced a modest increase of 137,000 bpd to its production target starting in November, far below market expectations. In contrast, Iraqi foreign officials announced a potential increase in global supplies by 500,000 bpd through resumed exports from Kurdistan, further weighing on crude prices.
Weekly EIA crude inventories are expected to rise by 250,000 bbl, while gasoline supplies may decrease by 1.325 million bbl. As of October 3, US crude oil inventories were reported to be 4.5% below the five-year seasonal average, despite a weekly production increase of 0.9% to 13.629 million bpd.
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