**Coffee Prices Decline Amid Expectations of High Brazilian Crop**
On Friday, July arabica coffee (KCN26) closed down 1.81% at $5.45, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) fell 0.24%, losing $9. The decline follows projections of a record Brazilian coffee crop by Marex Group Plc, predicting 75.9 million bags for the 2026/27 season, exceeding prior estimates. Similarly, StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags, leading to expectations of a global coffee surplus of 10 million bags in 2026, compared to just 1.8 million in 2025.
Vietnam’s coffee exports surged 14% year-on-year to 585,000 metric tons in early 2026, contributing to bearish conditions for robusta prices. Conversely, Brazil reported a 10% drop in green coffee exports in March, totaling 2.65 million bags, amid concerns about below-average rainfall affecting yields in key coffee-growing regions. As global tensions rise, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, shipping costs have increased, potentially affecting coffee supply and prices further.
