Dollar Declines as US-Iran Peace Negotiations Show Potential for Restart

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On Monday, the dollar index (DXY) fell by 0.05% after hitting a 2.5-week high due to an Axios report that Iran proposed a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This development follows heightened tensions between the US and Iran, involving blockades of the waterway during an extended ceasefire. As a reaction, the US dollar saw increased demand as a safe-haven asset amidst rising crude oil prices, which climbed 2% on the same day, intensifying inflation expectations and influencing Federal Reserve policy.

Meanwhile, the euro rose by 0.03% despite a decline in the German consumer confidence index, which hit a 3.25-year low. The IFO business confidence index also fell to a nearly six-year low of 84.4, below the expected 85.7. For Japan, the yen experienced only modest losses, supported by an upward revision in the leading index CI to a 3.5-year high, while the Nikkei Stock Index rallied, reducing safe-haven demand.

In commodities, June COMEX gold fell by 1.00% and May COMEX silver by 1.82%, driven by reduced safe-haven demand and expectations for tighter monetary policies due to rising crude oil prices. Notably, China’s PBOC continued to boost gold reserves, increasing by 160,000 ounces to 74.38 million troy ounces in March, marking the seventeenth consecutive month of growth.

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