On Wednesday, May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) closed at $14.69, up +0.57 (+4.04%), while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) closed at $446.90, increasing by +11.90 (+2.75%). This sharp rise marks a three-week high for NY sugar and a four-week high for London sugar, influenced significantly by rising gasoline prices which hit a 3.75-year high, encouraging sugar mills to prioritize ethanol production over sugar.
Conab reported that Brazil’s sugar output for the 2026/27 season is projected to decrease by 0.5% to 43.952 million tons, while ethanol output is expected to rise by 7.2% year-over-year to 29.259 million liters. Additionally, the USDA anticipates a further decline in Brazil’s sugar production to 42.5 million tons, citing a shift towards ethanol production. Recent analysis cuts also indicate a reduction in expected global sugar surpluses, from 1.4 million tons to 800,000 tons.
Concerns over supply disruptions due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting around 6% of the global sugar trade, further support sugar prices amid a backdrop of increased production estimates from India and other countries.
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