**Coffee Market Update – July 26, 2023**
On July 26, July arabica coffee (KCN26) closed down by 5.90 cents (2.04%), while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) increased by 35 cents (1.04%). The mixed price performance was influenced by optimistic projections regarding the potential end of the US-Iran conflict, which could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and alleviate supply pressures.
Brazil’s coffee crop for the 2026/27 season is expected to rise by 12% year-on-year to 71.4 million bags, according to the Coffee Trading Academy. This projection aligns with forecasts from Marex Group Plc and StoneX, which estimate record levels of 75.9 million bags and 75.3 million bags, respectively. Meanwhile, global coffee supplies are being constrained by higher shipping and import costs due to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to lower ICE arabica inventories, which fell to a 2.5-month low of 492,408 bags.
Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, reported a 15.8% year-on-year increase in coffee exports for early 2026, totaling 810,000 metric tons, contributing to bearish trends in robusta prices. In contrast, Brazil saw a 10% year-on-year decline in coffee exports in March 2023. The International Coffee Organization noted a slight global export decline of 0.3% to 138.658 million bags this marketing year.
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