On Tuesday, July arabica coffee (KCN26) closed at +1.65 (+0.61%) and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) rose +63 (+1.82%), reaching one-week highs amid concerns over global weather risks affecting supply. Dry conditions in Vietnam threaten its robusta crop, with the main growing region witnessing inconsistent rainfall, according to weather forecaster Vaisala.
Additionally, fears of an El Niño weather pattern could negatively impact Brazil’s coffee crop next year, with an 82% chance of El Niño conditions forecasted between May and July, potentially delaying necessary rains. Brazil’s coffee harvest for 2026/27 is projected to increase by 12% year-over-year to 71.4 million bags, according to various estimates, but tightening global supplies due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and declining exports from Brazil could bolster prices.
Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 15.8% year-over-year to 810,000 metric tons in early 2026, bolstering robusta production projections to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories dropped to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15, impacting price dynamics in the coffee market.
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