As of today, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) is down 1.02% at -42, and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) has decreased by 1.15% at -36. This decline follows guidance from Barry Callebaut, the world’s seventh-largest chocolate maker, indicating a slower-than-expected recovery in chocolate sales. Additionally, ICE cocoa inventories surged to a 1.75-year high of 2,892,863 bags, further pressuring prices.
Key data shows that cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast have increased by 1.8% year-over-year, reaching 1.66 million metric tons (MMT) in the current marketing year. However, the International Cocoa Organization revised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate down to 48,000 MT, with production projected to rise 8.3% year-over-year to 4.723 MMT.
Concerns over weather patterns, particularly a potential El Niño, could negatively impact cocoa production in West Africa. The NOAA estimates an 82% probability of El Niño conditions emerging by July. Meanwhile, Nigerian cocoa exports declined by 20% year-over-year in April, with predictions of an 11% drop in production for 2025/26.
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