On Friday, July arabica coffee closed up 1.28% at +3.25, while July ICE robusta coffee rose 3.78%, up +131. The price increases were driven by concerns over persistent rain in Brazil, which is expected to delay the coffee harvest. Forecasts from Vaisala indicate moderate to heavy rainfall across Brazil’s coffee-growing regions this week.
Additionally, the University of Michigan’s June US Consumer Sentiment Index increased by 4.1 points to 48.9, bolstering hopes for stronger coffee demand. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a six-and-a-half-month low of 398,940 bags as of Friday, while ICE robusta inventories reached a two-year low of 3,631 lots in mid-May, slightly rising to 3,761 lots recently.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has reported a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” developing this year, which could adversely affect coffee production in Brazil and Asia later this year. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports increased by 7.9% year-over-year in the first five months of 2026, contributing to bearish sentiments for robusta prices.
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