WTI crude oil prices dropped to a 3.5-month low, with July contracts down $2.90 (-3.78%) at $74.95, and July RBOB gasoline down $0.0349 (-1.20%) as of today. This decline follows President Trump’s signing of a memorandum in Paris on June 12, which extends the US-Iran ceasefire for 60 days and has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, allowing the resumption of millions of barrels of oil exports.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a more significant decline in global oil demand than expected, projecting a drop of 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) for this year. Goldman Sachs has revised its Q4 Brent crude forecast from $90 to $80 per barrel and anticipates that Persian Gulf crude exports will return to pre-war levels by the end of July.
In related data, US crude oil production rose slightly to 13.806 million bpd as of June 12. Active US oil rigs increased by 2 to reach an 11-month high of 433 rigs. However, these figures remain below the 627 rigs active in December 2022.
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