On July 23, TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan highlighted the end of a historically favorable seasonal window for the S&P 500, urging investors to focus on past market patterns rather than predicting future events. Kaplan’s analysis taps into decades of market data to uncover seasonal patterns with an 83% historical accuracy across 5,000 stocks since the early 1990s.
Seasonal trends have shown consistent buying opportunities, especially noted for stocks like Boston Beer (SAM), which has averaged a 6.6% increase during a specific window every October for the past 15 years, and Nvidia (NVDA), rising 6.5% on average during its seasonal boost. According to backtests, a portfolio built around these seasonal windows could convert $10,000 into $85,700 over 18 years, underscoring the value of understanding timing in stock market investments.
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