October sugar prices showed little movement today, with New York’s World Sugar #11 remaining unchanged and London’s ICE White Sugar #5 closing down by 0.70 points (-0.15%). This price lull comes as WTI crude oil fell by 4%, impacting expectations for ethanol production and potentially increasing sugar supply from mills globally.
President Trump recently announced new Section 301 tariffs between 10% and 12.5% on 60 countries, though these tariffs do not affect U.S. sugar imports, as they exclude food products. Enhanced Indian sugar output appears to be a contributing factor to current sugar pricing trends, as improved monsoon rains raised cumulative rainfall to 19% below normal, a significant recovery from 42% below normal earlier in the season.
Global sugar production forecasts are mixed, with estimates for Brazil’s output declining by 3% year-on-year for 2026/27 to about 42.5 million metric tons. Meanwhile, India’s sugar production is projected to rise by 12% year-on-year to 33.6 million metric tons, bolstered by favorable climate conditions. The International Sugar Organization forecasts global production for 2026/27 to fall slightly by 1.15% to 180 million metric tons, with concerns over potential disruptions from an anticipated strong El Niño weather pattern.
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