As of today, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) is up 1.25% to $72, while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) has increased by 0.12% to $5. Cocoa prices have risen due to concerns over production declines from anticipated adverse weather linked to the El Niño phenomenon, particularly in West Africa.
On July 30, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, projected that cocoa production for the 2026/27 season could drop to between 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT, down from 750,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, influenced by disease and aging farms. Additionally, early assessments in the Ivory Coast suggest a lower average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the upcoming harvest season, an 18% decrease from the previous year.
Global cocoa supply forecasts indicate a decrease in surplus, with Transgraph Consulting estimating a decline from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026 to 80,000 MT in 2026-2027. Meanwhile, Ghana reported a cocoa harvest of 750,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, marking a 25.6% increase from 597,000 MT in the 2024/25 season, adding mixed signals to cocoa market dynamics.
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