On Monday, September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed down 3.25 cents (-0.97%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) rose by 19 cents (+0.50%). The decline in arabica prices is attributed to below-normal rainfall in Brazil prompting a faster coffee harvest, as reported by Somar Meteorologia, which recorded only 5.8 mm of precipitation in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region, representing 92% of the historical average.
ICE robusta coffee inventories reached a 4.5-month high of 4,285 lots, signaling bearish trends, whereas ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 242,673 bags. The USDA’s latest forecast indicates a global coffee production increase of 6% for the 2026-27 season, reaching a record 189.7 million bags, bolstered by improved conditions in Brazil.
Concerns regarding an El Niño weather pattern, which could negatively impact Brazil’s coffee crop next year, add to price pressures. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports soared by 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons, contributing to bearish indicators for robusta prices.
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