The wheat market is experiencing midday losses across major exchanges, with Chicago SRW contracts down 9 to 10 cents, KC HRW futures also declining by 9 to 10 cents, and MPLS spring wheat prices falling by 10 to 11 cents. As of Sunday, the NASS Crop Progress report indicated that 91% of the US winter wheat crop has been harvested, matching the normal pace, while 24% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested, outpacing the 19% five-year average.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect NASS to release updated wheat production data on Wednesday, forecasting a total of 1.525 billion bushels, which would be an 11 million bushel decrease from July. Specifically, winter wheat is expected to decline by 9 million bushels to 981 million, and spring wheat is projected to slip 7 million bushels to 468 million. Additionally, US wheat ending stocks are anticipated to be 715 million bushels, reflecting a 7 million bushel drop from the previous month.
Internationally, Sovecon estimates Russian wheat exports in August at 3 to 3.4 million metric tons, down from 4.5 million metric tons last year. The Russian wheat crop is projected at 90 million metric tons, a decrease of 0.5 million metric tons from last month. Meanwhile, EU soft wheat exports from July 1 to August 9 totaled 1.01 million metric tons, compared to 2.36 million metric tons in the same period last year.
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