Cocoa prices saw a rebound on September 5, 2023, with September ICE NY cocoa rising by 10 points (+0.18%) and September ICE London cocoa #7 increasing by 10 points (+0.24%). This uptick follows a sharp decline of over 4% earlier in the week, attributed to favorable growing conditions in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which have enhanced flowering ahead of the main harvest slated to begin next month.
As of July 31, cumulative data reported that Ivory Coast farmers had shipped 2.11 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa for the current marketing year, a 20% increase from the previous year. In contrast, Ghana’s cocoa production for the 2025/26 season has reached 750,000 MT, marking a 25.6% increase year-on-year. However, projections for 2026/27 indicate a possible decline in Ghana’s production to between 450,000 MT and 550,000 MT due to various agricultural challenges and forecasted adverse weather conditions linked to the El Niño pattern.
Cocoa inventory levels are currently a concern, having reached a two-year high before a slight decrease to 3,335,795 bags. Demand exhibited mixed results, with European cocoa grindings falling by 4.6% in Q2 to 316,366 MT, while North American grindings rose by 7.7% to 109,659 MT.
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