October New York world sugar #11 (SBV26) has decreased by 1.37%, down -0.23, while October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) fell by 1.35%, down -7.20. This decline follows recent price rallies that reached 1.25-year highs earlier this week.
Czarnikow reports a projected global sugar deficit of 2.9 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2027/28 season, attributing the decline to lower plantings and adverse weather in key producing regions including India, the EU, and Thailand. India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall is reported to be 12% below normal, and the ongoing dry conditions in Europe could lead to the lowest sugar output in over a decade, with anticipated production at 14.98 MMT for the EU and the UK.
Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer, also faces challenges as sugar production in the Center-South region fell by 26.3% year-on-year to 3.903 MMT in June. Weather-related issues, compounded by the emergence of the El Niño phenomenon, may further impact sugar output in major producing areas like Brazil, India, and Thailand. The USDA forecasts a decrease in global sugar production to 184.854 MMT in 2026/27, a 6.5% drop from the previous year.
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