October sugar prices soared on Tuesday, with New York world sugar #11 (SBV26) rising by 3.56% to a 15-month high and London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) up 3.15% to a 16-month high. The spike in prices follows reports that India is contemplating cutting import duties on sugar to alleviate supply pressures as demand is expected to increase during the festival season.
Global forecasts indicate significant sugar deficits in the coming years, with Covrig Analytics projecting a deficit of 300,000 MT for 2026/27, a shift from an earlier surplus estimate. Concurrently, Green Pool Commodity Specialists have raised their deficit outlook to 3.3 million MT, while StoneX increased its deficit forecast to 1.7 million MT. Ongoing drought conditions and the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern, particularly in major sugar-producing regions such as India and Brazil, are contributing to these predictions and heightening market volatility.
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