Arabica coffee prices surged to a 6.75-month high today, with December arabica (KCZ26) increasing by 4.62% to $14.90 per pound, while September robusta (RMU26) rose by 2.64% to $95. The uptick is largely driven by Brazil’s slow coffee harvest, currently at 81.1% completion as of August 14, down from 86.1% a year earlier, according to Cooxupe co-op.
Falling ICE arabica coffee inventories, which hit a 2.75-year low of 227,992 bags last Friday, are further supporting higher prices. Additionally, a recent 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Colombia affected coffee-growing areas, adding to supply concerns. Despite some resumption of exports from Colombia’s Buenaventura port, traffic remains limited due to earthquake-related issues.
Concerns surrounding the potential impacts of an El Niño weather pattern on Brazil’s upcoming coffee crop could bolster prices amidst forecasts indicating a possible 6% increase in global coffee output for the 2026-27 season, according to the USDA. However, this may not benefit robusta prices, as Vietnam’s coffee exports rose by 21.1% year-over-year to 1.31 million metric tons in the first half of 2026, contributing to bearish sentiment in that market.
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