On Friday, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closed down $1 (-0.02%), while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) fell $14 (-0.32%). Cocoa prices declined after early week gains, with Ghana’s cocoa regulator proposing a 6% pay increase for cocoa farmers for the 2026/27 season, which could lead to withheld sales as farmers seek higher prices.
In a significant supply update, Ivory Coast cocoa shipments reached 2.14 million metric tons (MMT) for the current marketing year, a 19% increase year-on-year. The region also produced 2.06 MMT of cocoa from June 2025 to June 2026, marking a 30% rise compared to the previous year. However, ICE cocoa inventories hit a two-year high of 3,436,742 bags last week, later settling at 3,415,952 bags.
Ghana’s Cocoa Board forecasts a decrease in the cocoa crop to 650,000 MT for the 2026/27 season, declining 13% from the previous year. Additionally, early assessments indicate a potential drop in Ivory Coast’s upcoming crop to 1.8 MMT, an 18% decrease compared to last season. Despite these challenges, cocoa prices recently hit near 11.25-month highs, with weather-related issues further complicating crop quality in West Africa.
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