December ICE NY cocoa closed down $100 (-1.66%) to end at $5,930 per metric ton, while December ICE London cocoa fell by $68 (-1.55%) to $4,314 per metric ton on Tuesday. This drop in cocoa prices is attributed to signs of adequate supplies, particularly from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer.
Recent reports indicate that cumulative cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast reached 2.14 million metric tons (MMT) during the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through September 13, 2026), an 18% increase from the previous year. However, shipments for the new marketing year, which started September 1, saw a significant decline of 45.8%, with only 26,000 metric tons shipped during September 1-13 compared to earlier periods. Additionally, rising cocoa inventories in the ICE market reached a near two-year high of 3.42 million bags.
Forecasts for cocoa production are mixed, with the Ivory Coast expected to produce around 1.8 million metric tons for the 2026/27 season, down 18% from the previous year, and Ghana projecting a severe decline due to adverse weather and disease. Ghana’s Cocoa Board estimated a production drop to between 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT for the upcoming season from 750,000 MT for 2025/26, reflecting growing concerns about market stability amid these challenges.
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