December arabica coffee prices rose 0.51% to $1.40 today, while November robusta coffee prices fell 0.53% to a one-week low. This fluctuation in prices follows a recent report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), projecting a record global coffee crop for the 2025/26 season at 183.6 million bags, resulting in a 3 million bag surplus—the first surplus in five years.
In August, Brazil’s coffee exports surged by 31% year-over-year to 4.155 million bags, setting a record for that month. This increase included a 26% rise in arabica exports to 2.87 million bags and a 54% rise in robusta exports to 953,592 bags. Concurrently, Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to August increased by 13.7% to 1.33 million metric tons, indicating abundant global supplies contributing to the lower market prices.
Coffee inventories reflect contrasting trends, with arabica stocks at a 27-year low of 217,646 bags, which may bolster prices, while robusta inventories climbed to a 9.5-month high of 5,043 lots, exerting downward pressure. Concerns about the El Niño weather pattern potentially affecting Brazil’s upcoming crop add further complexity to market dynamics.
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