**Cocoa Prices Rising Amid Production Concerns**
Cocoa prices are rebounding as December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) is up +24 (+0.45%) and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) rose +22 (+0.58%) today. This recovery follows an 8-week low, driven by short-covering linked to forecasts of dry weather in Ivory Coast, which raises worries about crop stress and potential production declines for the 2026/27 season. The Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, harvested 2.06 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa for the June 2025 to June 2026 period, a 30% increase from last year.
Despite current price increases, cocoa inventories remain high at 3,434,532 bags, just below a two-year peak. Outlooks for declines in future harvests are concerning, notably from Ghana, where the Cocoa Board has projected a 13% reduction in the 2026/27 crop to 650,000 MT. Additionally, early assessments indicate that the Ivory Coast’s pod development is poor, with projections of an 18% decrease in this year’s harvest compared to the previous season.
As the El Niño weather pattern is anticipated to impact yields negatively, global cocoa demand has shown mixed results, with North American grindings up 7.7% to 109,659 MT, while European grindings fell by 4.6% to 316,366 MT, the lowest in six years.
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