On Monday, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) rose by +24 (+0.45%) to close at a higher price, while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) increased by +27 (+0.69%). This upward movement follows a recent decline, driven by forecasts predicting dry weather in the Ivory Coast, raising concerns over potential crop stress for the 2026/27 season.
The Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, reported a significant harvest of 2.06 million metric tons (MMT) from June 2025 to June 2026—up 30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier. However, cumulative shipping data indicated a rise in shipments to 2.14 MMT, an increase of 18% from the previous year. Notably, the current cocoa marketing year began on September 1 for the Ivory Coast, contrasting with the international date of October 1.
Despite rising output causing initial price pressure, concerns about lower crop quality for both Ivory Coast and Ghana are contributing to price stability. Ghana’s Cocoa Board estimates the 2026/27 crop at 650,000 MT, a 13% decrease from the previous year. Current inventories remain high, nearing a two-year record of 3,431,944 bags, despite forecasts suggesting a significant decline in future production due to the expected El Niño weather pattern.
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