**Cocoa Prices Rise Amid Weather Concerns**
On Wednesday, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) rose by 2.33% to close at +126, while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) increased by 3.25% to +130. The surge in cocoa prices is attributed to worries regarding insufficient rainfall in the Ivory Coast, projected to stress crops and decrease output in the next 2026/27 crop season.
Despite recent drops to 1.75-month lows due to improved cocoa output estimates from the Ivory Coast, recent reports indicate the nation harvested 2.06 million metric tons from June 2025 to June 2026, a 30% increase from the previous year. Cumulative data shows shipments are up 18% year-on-year, with 2.14 million metric tons moved to ports in the current marketing year as of September 13, 2026.
Additionally, rising inventories have contributed to uncertainty, with ICE cocoa stocks hitting a 2.25-year high of 3,437,710 bags. The forecast for a smaller cocoa crop in Ghana, estimated at 650,000 metric tons for 2026/27—down 13% from the previous year—adds bullish pressure to prices. The El Niño weather pattern also poses significant risks, with predictions suggesting potentially severe impacts on West African cocoa yields.
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