**Cocoa Prices Drop Due to Surging Dollar and Supply Concerns**
On Tuesday, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) fell by 3.24% to close down -181, while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) declined by 3.09%, down -129. This decrease follows a rise in the dollar index to a two-month high, leading to long liquidation in cocoa futures. Over the current marketing year, from October 1, 2025, to September 27, 2026, cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast reached 2.18 million metric tons, reflecting a 19.8% increase compared to the previous year.
The global cocoa market is currently facing pressures from rising inventories, with ICE cocoa stocks at a 2.25-year high of 3,452,949 bags. Additionally, ongoing concerns about the quality of West African cocoa crops due to adverse weather conditions, as well as predictions of reduced future production in both the Ivory Coast and Ghana, may provide underlying support for prices. Ghana’s Cocoa Board estimates the 2026/27 crop at 650,000 metric tons, down 13% from the previous year, compounded by the potential impact of an El Niño weather event on yields.
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