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“Apple’s AI Struggles: Can Q1 Earnings Mitigate Market Share Loss?”

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Wall Street Prepares for Apple’s Q1 Earnings Amid Market Challenges

Analysts anticipate that Apple Inc AAPL will report revenues of $124.13 billion when it releases its first-quarter financial results after market hours on Thursday. Earnings per share are projected to be $2.35.

Apple Faces Challenges with AI and Market Share

The tech giant, headquartered in Cupertino, California, is under increasing pressure from setbacks in artificial intelligence and losses in market share as it approaches its first-quarter earnings report. According to Hazeltree’s latest Shortside Crowdedness Report, Apple is currently one of the most crowded large-cap stocks in the U.S.

While competitors like Samsung and Alphabet Inc’s GOOGL GOOG accelerate their AI-powered smartphone offerings, Apple has been slower to adapt. Issues with its AI summary tool and delayed feature rollouts have led to customer dissatisfaction.

This sluggishness has contributed to a decline in market share, which has dipped to 23% globally and has been notably impacted in China due to regulatory restrictions impacting innovation. In addition, Apple faces regulatory barriers in Indonesia that have hindered iPhone sales, although discussions for a potential agreement are ongoing. Investors are eager to see if this earnings report can redefine Apple’s challenges.

Let’s examine what the charts are indicating for Apple stock ahead of its earnings release.

Bullish Signals in Apple Stock Chart

Currently, Apple stock shows strong bullish trends, trading at $238.26, above its five, 20, and 50-day exponential moving averages. This activity suggests there is solid buying momentum.

Screenshot 2025 01 29 at 5.40.05 PM

Chart created using Benzinga Pro

The eight-day and 20-day simple moving averages affirm this bullish outlook, showing strength in the short term. However, the 50-day simple moving average stands at $239.80, indicating a minor resistance level worth noting. On a longer time frame, the 200-day simple moving average at $219.07 reinforces a positive momentum trend, making any pullbacks appealing to investors as potential buying opportunities.

Nevertheless, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at a negative 3.41 suggests a bearish signal, hinting at possible short-term consolidation. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 52.27, Apple stock remains in neutral territory, allowing room for potential growth without being considered overbought. A breakout above the 50-day moving average will be crucial to maintain positive momentum.

Analysts Project 9% Upside for Apple

Amid these developments, Oppenheimer has issued a cautionary statement regarding Apple before its first-quarter earnings. Analysts Martin Yang and Andrew Northcutt downgraded their rating from Outperform, revised their estimates downward, and removed their $250 price target due to weaker iPhone sales and an absence of compelling AI features.

With competition intensifying in China and Apple’s valuation already on the higher side, these analysts predict that the stock may find it difficult to outperform the market in the near term.

Ratings & Consensus Estimates: Currently, the consensus rating for Apple stock is a Buy, with an average price target set at $243.06. Additional ratings from firms like Rosenblatt, BofA Securities, and Wedbush suggest an average price target of $255, indicating approximately 8.85% upside potential.

Price Action: At the close of trading on Tuesday, Apple stood at $238.26, reflecting a 3.65% increase, and has seen a 24.27% rise over the past year, dipping by 2.29% year-to-date.

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