Arabica coffee prices fell by 3.04%, down $10.10 to $321.50, while robusta coffee rose by 0.26%, up $10 to $3,867.60, on September 2, 2023. The decline in Arabica prices is attributed to drier conditions in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions, particularly in Minas Gerais, where no rain was reported for the week ending August 2, 2023. As a result, the country’s coffee harvest is expected to accelerate.
Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported that its coffee harvest was 58.3% complete as of July 24, 2023, compared to 67% the previous year. The USDA’s latest forecast indicates a global coffee output increase of 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags in the 2026-27 season, largely due to improved conditions in Brazil.
Concerns over the potential impact of the emerging El Niño weather pattern, expected to affect rainfall during crucial tree flowering months, also influence prices. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports rose by 21.1% year-on-year for January-July 2026, reaching 1.31 million metric tons, contributing to bearish trends for robusta prices.
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