Walmart’s Performance and Outlook: Strong Growth Amid Challenges

With a market cap of $779.4 billion, Walmart Inc. (WMT) stands as a global retail powerhouse. The company provides an extensive product range through its brick-and-mortar locations, e-commerce sites, and mobile applications. Walmart operates under three primary segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam’s Club. Its business model focuses on everyday low prices, aiming to deliver value and convenience to customers around the world.

Shares of this Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer have notably outperformed the broader market over the past year. Over the last 52 weeks, WMT has surged 65.5%, while the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has recorded a mere 11.7% increase. Year-to-date, Walmart’s shares are up 7.8%, in contrast to the 4.7% drop in the SPX.

Walmart has also exceeded the performance of the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLP) 8.1% gain over the past year and its YTD return of 3.2%.

Despite reporting better-than-expected Q4 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.66 and revenue of $180.6 billion, Walmart shares fell 6.5% on February 20 due to disappointing forward guidance. The company warned of a potential slowdown in sales growth after a strong year, forecasting fiscal 2026 revenue growth of only 3%-4%. This projection includes a possible year-over-year profit decline for the first time in three years. The Q1 2026 outlook also missed expectations, suggesting adjusted EPS of $0.57 – $0.58 and revenue of $159.9 billion, both falling short of analyst predictions. Concerns have also arisen regarding Walmart’s reliance on partners like Symbotic for supply chain automation.

For the fiscal year ending January 2026, analysts predict that WMT’s adjusted EPS will increase 3.6% year-over-year to $2.60. However, it’s noteworthy that Walmart has consistently beaten consensus estimates in its earnings surprise history over the last four quarters.

Among the 38 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Strong Buy.” This assessment is supported by 32 “Strong Buy” ratings, five “Moderate Buys,” and one “Hold.”

This positive outlook has improved from three months ago when there were only 30 “Strong Buy” ratings on the stock.

On April 10, UBS analyst Michael Lasser lowered Walmart’s price target to $110 while maintaining a “Buy” rating. Despite this slight reduction, the forecast remains optimistic as Walmart plans to increase revenue by 4% and boost operating income and free cash flow to double-digit rates.

As of this writing, WMT is trading below the average price target of $108.05. The highest price target on Wall Street is $120, suggesting a potential upside of 23.2% from the current level.

On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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