On Thursday, coffee prices surged, with July arabica coffee (KCN26) rising by 2.23% to close at $5.55 and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) up 3.25% at $109. This increase follows concerns regarding persistent rainfall in Brazil, which may delay the coffee harvest, as forecasted by Vaisala. Moderate to heavy rain is expected across Brazil’s coffee-growing regions this week and potentially into next week.
As of Wednesday, ICE arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 6.5-month low of 402,709 bags, while robusta inventories were at 3,713 lots, slightly above a two-year low. Additionally, the NOAA reports a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could severely impact Brazil’s coffee crop for the 2026/27 season. The USDA has projected Brazil’s coffee production to reach a record 71.9 million bags, a 14% increase year-over-year, contributing to fluctuations in coffee prices.
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